Market Corrections
Major corrections will always occur on Australian and other global markets. For a pointer on what to expect post a correction, it is valuable to re-examine five previous market corrections of the ASX/S&P200 (XJO) index from 2000 to late 2007. This is the index that covers the top 200 Australian shares. More specifically we will be looking at the falls of September 2001, early 2003, the two market falls in 2005, mid 2006 and the correction in February 2007. We will be looking at how much the market fell, how long it took to recover and any lessons that can be learnt, if any, from these market phases.
For an overview of Market Corrections compared to a Bear Market please click here.
Analysis
The tables below contain data on the previous corrections of the XJO since the year 2000. Table 1 indicates the dates of the highs and lows of the correction and their corresponding XJO value. Table 2 indicates the value of the drop in the XJO, the corresponding percentage figure and date that the previous highs before the correction were reached.
Table 1: XJO Corrections dates since 2000, Lows and Highs
|
No.
|
Date of High
|
High
|
Date of Low
|
Low
|
|
1
|
2 July 2001
|
3490.30
|
24 September 2001
|
2882.60
|
|
2
|
7 January 2003
|
3094.10
|
13 March 2003
|
2693.30
|
|
3
|
21 March 2005
|
4266.90
|
5 May 2005
|
3926.60
|
|
4
|
30 September 2005
|
4679.10
|
21 October 2005
|
4311.10
|
|
5
|
10 May 2006
|
5406.70
|
14 June 2006
|
4758.30
|
|
6
|
23 February 2007
|
6052.10
|
6 March 2007
|
5641.10
|
Table 2: XJO falls, and date of recovering to previous highs.
| No. |
Amount |
Percentage |
Date reached previous highs |
| 1 |
607.70 |
17.41% |
12 December 2002 |
| 2 |
400.80 |
12.95% |
3 June 2003 |
| 3 |
340.30 |
7.98% |
16 June 2005 |
| 4 |
368.00 |
7.86% |
22 November 2005 |
| 5 |
648.40 |
11.99% |
30 October 2006 |
| 6 |
411.00 |
6.79% |
????? |
The chart below is of the Aussie 200, XJO, since 2000 with the correction analysed above highlighted in yellow. While some analysts traditionally suggest a fall of over 10% is required before a sharemarket fall can be defined as a correction, for the purposes of this analysis a correction is defined as a sharp fall in a short period of time, generally over 5% and less than three months.
Observations
Notice in the chart above that correction 1 and 2 were over 10% and occurred during a time when the market was moving sideways. Correction 1 was more severe due to the terrorist attacks however, both were during a time of bearishness in the market. Correction 1 took the longest to reach the previous highs, around one and a half years, compared to around half a year for correction number 2.
Since the recovery in 2003, the share market has been in an obvious bull cycle. Each correction during this bull cycle has resulted in the market recovering fairly quickly. With correction 5 taking less than half a year to recover and correction 3 and 4 taking around 3 and one and a half months respectively. Admittedly correction 3 and 4 were less than 8% while correction 5 was nearly a 12% fall. If the bottom has been reached in this correction then it will be the lowest at 6.79%.
Conclusion
The evidence above basically shows that the market has a tendency to recover; however the time it takes to recover varies depending on market fundamentals. We are unable to ascertain whether or not the market has corrected it's whole amount or if there is more downside to come. But, what we can state is that if global fundamentals remain intact then the recovery will be relatively fast.
